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  • January 21, 2019
    导出博客文章NFL broadcasts and coaching news conferences are full of football proverbs. Very
    often, these are simply explanations for a why a situation demanded avoiding
    risk, or at least delaying it. And very often, the numbers -- while not perfect
    -- tell us otherwise.In many cases, these unwritten laws of coaching and game
    management in football are more a function of history and tradition without a
    space for self-reevaluation or change. Thats not acceptable. Teams who spend all
    week looking for the tiniest little competitive advantages abandon them when
    given the opportunity to impact a game. Thats a waste, and its time for a
    change.Lets run through some of these close scenarios and explain why the
    traditional method of thinking about them is antiquated. Starting with a classic
    ...Never take points off the board.Points are valuable! Of course we want
    points! And when you have to battle for 60 yards, then turn to a questionable
    kicker who narrowly sneaks one through the uprights, the last thing you want to
    do as a coach is repeat this process while running the risk of coming away with
    no points. The possibility of scoring seven points, though, should make three
    seem much less valuable.There are obvious situations in which teams should keep
    their points -- to tie or take the lead in a close game, for one -- but early in
    a game, when the only goal should be to score as many points as possible,
    coaches need to be open to the idea of leaving their offense on the field to
    score a touchdown. Since kickers are better than ever before and turnover rates
    are at their lowest since 1932, the chances are slim that an offense will take
    three off the board and end up with zero.Lets use the expected points model that
    underpins ESPNs QBR metrics. Heres a simple scenario: Its early in the second
    quarter of a 7-7 game with league-average offenses and defenses. Your kicker
    hits a field goal on fourth-and-2, but the defense is offside, giving you a
    first down if so inclined. Heres how many points your team would expect to score
    with a new set of downs from each given yard line:These numbers account for the
    risk of turning the ball over or not scoring at all versus the reward of scoring
    a touchdown. In a vacuum, when you expect to score more than three points from a
    given yard line, you should wipe the field goal off the board and go back out on
    offense. Just about every feasible situation in which you would be kicking a
    field goal seems to suggest that taking the points off of the board is the
    superior option. Even if you are conservative and have an subpar field goal
    kicker, a new set of downs would most likely get you inside the 30-yard line.
    Send your quarterback back out there, coach.Never throw when youre running a
    four-minute offense to kill clock.Thirty years ago, when quarterbacks were
    throwing farther downfield and completing a far lower percentage of their
    passes, it made sense for teams to strictly limit their quarterbacks to handing
    off the football in situations where running clock was more important than
    picking up a first down. Quarterbacks simply couldnt be trusted not to screw up,
    and most receivers werent good enough to regularly win one-on-one
    matchups.Todays game is different. Quarterbacks routinely throw bubble screens
    and other short passes designed to get the ball out quickly, and their success
    rate on those throws is remarkable: They complete 70.9 percent of their passes
    within five yards of the line of scrimmage and throw interceptions 1.1 percent
    of the time. Thats similar to the fumble rate on rushing plays since 2012 (1.2
    percent, although only 0.7 percent are lost to the opposition).Repeat: Many
    passes are high-percentage plays.In situations where teams are one or two first
    downs away from ending the game, passing simply has to be part of the equation,
    if only to prevent teams from teeing off on your running game. The screen Dak
    Prescott set up with Cole Beasley to seal the game against the 49ers is a
    perfect example. And, with run-pass options, you can ask your quarterback to
    make a simple check at the line of scrimmage and either hand the ball off or
    make a pass that is likely to be completed.In situations where teams simply want
    to run as much clock as possible and punt without any real concern about getting
    a first down, theyre probably better off kneeling than running offensive plays,
    if only because of the risk of a fumble. Theres little logic behind teams
    half-trying to succeed on offense. Another example of that ...Run to start your
    two-minute drill, because if it fails, just run out the clock.Many NFL teams are
    fond of starting their final drives before halftime with a draw or another sort
    of running play to try to test the waters. If the play goes well, theyll kick it
    into second gear and start sprinting down the field to try to score. If the play
    fails, theyll slow down and waste time before hitting the locker room for
    halftime. In a league where teams constantly talk about dictating the game and
    imposing their will upon the opposition, the halftime draw is weirdly
    passive.But the halftime draw doesnt suit either master. If the play works and
    gains 10 yards, youre now sprinting up to the line of scrimmage to run your next
    play while wasting precious seconds or youre burning a timeout. Given how far
    these plays likely are from the end zone, theyre the most likely passes on your
    drive to be completed and the mostly likely to end with a free pass out of
    bounds to stop the clock. Teams are afraid of throwing incomplete passes and
    being stuck punting to the opposition, but if thats such a concern, youre better
    off kneeling and avoiding the risk of fumbles.The classic example of end-of-half
    clock mismanagement came in Week 3 from the Titans, who ran a draw on first down
    for 8 yards from the 25-yard line with 33 seconds left in the first half. The
    opposing Raiders were down to one timeout. Oakland didnt call a timeout after
    the play, so Tennessee could have let the game go to halftime or called one of
    their own remaining timeouts to try to set up the next couple of plays. Instead,
    they rushed to the line and threw a pass with 11 seconds left, a meaningless
    3-yard in-route that was telegraphed and nearly intercepted. On the next play,
    with eight seconds left, Marcus Mariota threw another pass over the middle that
    was tipped and intercepted by Reggie Nelson, who stepped out of bounds during
    his return with no time left on the clock. It was the polar opposite of how to
    manage a late-half or late-game situation.Teams can get in trouble throwing the
    ball in these spots, although its often with low-reward decisions; think about
    the Cowboys throwing a checkdown with time running out in the half against
    Washington in 2010 and having Tashard Choices fumble returned for a touchdown --
    which ended up as the margin of victory in a 13-7 loss. And there are times when
    the draw works, too. But thats not the point. Its better to have a plan and go
    all-out in attack or time expenditure without letting the opposition decide what
    to do on your behalf.When teams are dealing with this decision in the fourth
    quarter of a tie contest, chances are its better to be aggressive and try to win
    games. There are too many teams throughout history who have sat on the ball
    after allowing a late score and regretted the tale. The flip side of that, quite
    famously in opposition to John Maddens commentary, was the 2001 Patriots. They
    allowed a back-breaking touchdown to Ricky Proehl with 1:36 left in the Super
    Bowl to tie the score at 17, and while Madden suggested the Patriots kneel on
    the ball, Bill Belichick rightly realized he was a massive underdog and would
    only be running the risk of giving Kurt Warner the ball in overtime.Tom Brady
    promptly drove the Patriots 53 yards for a game-winning Adam Vinatieri field
    goal.Never go for two before you have to.The rule differs around the league, but
    there are a fair number of NFL playcallers who dont go for two until the end of
    the game is in sight. For some, you start at the beginning of the fourth
    quarter, while others might not even think about their two-point plays until
    there are seven minutes or less remaining in the contest.The argument says you
    shouldnt chase the score until theres a good chance it might be the final score,
    which makes some sense, even if many of those same teams and commentators ignore
    that logic in more conservative situations. (Many of them will argue how teams
    should kick a field goal to tie the score or make it a one-possession game at
    similar times of the contest.) Its true that teams shouldnt treat the numbers on
    the scoreboard as if theyre guaranteed to be the final score, but its also naive
    to suggest that scoring is entirely random from that point forward.Its
    impossible for humans to imagine all of the possibilities in their head in real
    time, but its far from impossible to imagine them with a computer, which is why
    coaches should look to models. The one created by Football Commentary is
    outdated because it doesnt account for the new extra point rules, but it gives
    us some broader insight into how teams should think about these sorts of
    decisions.Their model suggests going for two isnt as meaningful or clear-cut
    early in the second half as it might be later in the contest, but there are
    still situations where the choice to go for two should be quite obvious. Teams
    should basically always be going for two when they are up by five or down by
    five. The same is true when they are down by two, eight, nine, 13 or 15, which
    leads to another unwritten rule ...Kick the extra point when down nine to make
    it a one-score game.The Browns ran into the furor surrounding this unwritten
    rule a couple of weeks back, when Hue Jackson decided to go for two down 28-19
    with 2:10 left to try to make it a one-score game. He failed. This essentially
    ended the contest: The Browns recovered an onside kick and scored a touchdown,
    but that was only enough to make it 28-26. They failed on a second onside kick
    try and subsequently lost.Lets flip that scenario and say the Browns kick the
    extra point first to go down 28-20 with 2:10 left. Then, lets say that the same
    stuff happens. The Browns recover the onside kick, score another touchdown, and
    then go for two and fail. Theyre in the same situation. Theyre down 28-26, but
    now, its with 30 seconds to go. There is no time left to overcome their failed
    two-point play.The outcomes are exactly the same. If you get the two-pointer,
    you need only one score to tie, regardless of whether you get it early or late.
    And if you dont get the two-pointer, you need two scores to tie, regardless of
    whether you miss with the first attempt or the second one. The only difference
    between the two plays, as Chase Stuart first pointed out to me, is that teams
    who go for two and fail on their first drive have more time to adapt their
    decision-making for the fact that theyve failed by getting more aggressive with
    blitzes or offensive playcalling. The team who goes for it late and fails has
    spent the preceding few minutes assuming they were going to get the two-pointer
    to tie. (A team who gets the two-pointer on their first drive also can win by
    going for a two-pointer again on their second touchdown drive, but that is an
    avenue of aggressiveness coaches are unlikely to pursue.)Coaches dont go for two
    on the earlier drive for a couple of reasons. 1) They rarely want to do
    something that will influence the game or take it out of their players hands,
    and 2) the decision-making is based on putting off losing for as long as
    possible as opposed to attempting to actively win, which is why they pass up
    fourth-and-short early in the fourth quarter and are often stuck going for
    fourth-and-12 later.Ive also heard the argument that players will be demoralized
    by failing to go for two early and then get shut down, but Im more skeptical
    there. The Browns had every reason to turn off the switch after failing to score
    their two-pointer, given the general hopelessness of the short-term situation in
    Cleveland, and they promptly played their butts off to get the ball back and
    score again.?The Browns situation wasnt the classic example, if only because
    they didnt really have a ton of time to optimize their decision-making either
    way. It makes going for two on the earlier drive less meaningful, but theres
    still no added argument toward going for two on the later drive. Youre fooling
    yourself if you think getting the early extra point does anything more to make
    it a one-score game.Kick the field goal in a low-scoring game because points are
    at a premium.Ive never been able to understand this one. When scoring is low,
    some points -- any points -- could be the difference, so take em.Problem: Isnt
    the flip side of that argument even more compelling? If youre not expecting to
    move the ball and come away with a drive deep into opposing territory, shouldnt
    you take advantage of that rare opportunity to score a touchdown? If three
    points are valuable, seven seems significantly more useful, given that it would
    take the opposing team a touchdown drive of its own (or three field goals) to
    match what youve accomplished on one drive.Heres the benefit that comes whenever
    you miss a fourth-and-short deep in opposing territory: field position. In a
    low-scoring game, field position is critical. Teams punt in their oppositions
    side of the field and play it safe on third down to try to ensure a
    field-position advantage. If you kick a field goal, youre giving the other team
    the ball back after a missed field goal or an ensuing kickoff. If you go for it
    inside the 5-yard line and fail, you leave your defense in an advantageous
    position. That sort of field position advantage will add up, both over that
    drive and in the one to come.There are more maxims to delve into while talking
    about football coaches and commentators. I still dont understand why teams on
    the road have to take the points, or why NFL teams try to ice kickers when the
    evidence suggests it has no meaningful strategic value (and can often allow a
    practice kick). But well keep hearing these, because sometimes, superstition and
    tradition rule the way over reality and logic.
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