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ged his call. More than anythi

  • 15 Jun
    导出博客文章Often in this space well explore the work of someone who had an exceptionally
    poor performance QBR-wise, or look at why an opponent adjustment may be helping
    or hurting a QBs numbers. So why are we looking this week at Detroit Lions QB
    Matthew Stafford, who had an above-average opponent-adjusted QBR of 66.1 in
    Sundays win over the Eagles? The reason is that Stafford also happened to
    possess the highest NFL passer rating of the week at 135.0. Lets take a look at
    what differentiates Total QBR from Staffords traditional passer rating:Dont
    forget about the fumbleStaffords passing numbers (19 of 25, 180 yards, 3 TD)
    last week were fairly impressive. He completed 76 percent of his attempts and
    threw for three scores without an interception -- all good things. But one area
    the NFL passer rating fails to account for is when a QB fumbles, yet fumbles are
    often a big part of the picture of a quarterbacks day.Stafford was responsible
    for only one turnover, a fumble lost, but it was a potentially costly one. With
    the Lions up by four and operating at their own 12-yard-line midway through the
    third quarter, Stafford lost control of the ball while trying to maneuver within
    the pocket. Officially, the play is recorded as a sack, and the fumble was
    recovered by the Eagles at the 16, setting them up with a chance to pull within
    a point with a field goal or take the lead. To put it in terms of their win
    probability, Detroit went from a 62 percent chance to win before the play to a
    50 percent chance after -- a loss of 12 percentage points.Staffords QBR fell
    from 90.5 to 81.0 on the play though his NFL passer rating was unchanged,
    underscoring the incomplete nature of the latter metric.Sacks matter tooIn
    addition to the aforementioned sack-and-fumble, Stafford took three other sacks.
    The first came on the play just before the lost fumble. That, along with a
    damaging unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Anquan Boldin, is what helped set
    the Lions back to their own 12.Staffords other two sacks both came on third
    downs in the fourth quarter. The first turned a third-and-7 at the Eagles 38 (on
    the verge of field goal range) into a fourth-and-16 and a punt, dropping his QBR
    from a 76.5 before the play to a 67.5 afterward. His final sack came on a
    third-and-goal from the Eagles 5. Not nearly as detrimental as the lost fumble
    or moving out of field goal range, but it also wasnt a positive and did make the
    ensuing field goal attempt slightly more difficult for his kicker.None of these
    plays were accounted for in his NFL passer rating.How penalties improved
    Staffords numbersPenalties are one area NFL passer rating overlooks and QBR
    accounts for, and in this case it was actually beneficial to the latter number
    for Stafford. He was able to draw a defensive offsides call and a pair of
    defensive pass interference flags, and while none were huge gains for him, QBR
    does account for these plays.In the end, the largest differentiators between
    Staffords QBR and his passer rating were the four sacks and the turnover. If we
    look at just his 25 passing attempts, his raw QBR would have been an 81. But
    losses incurred from those damaging plays get us to his final number of 66.1,
    highlighting the magnitude negative plays can have on a game.A look at Staffords
    week-to-week progression in the QBR realm:
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    . -- Al Jefferson found a groove just in time for the Charlotte
    Bobcats. MILWAUKEE -- Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Jimmy Nelson lost the game and
    his manager lost the argument in the fourth inning.Sean Rodriguez hit a home run
    and a two-run single, Andrew McCutchen went deep and rookie Chad Kuhl pitched
    six strong innings and the Milwaukee Brewers lost 4-1 to the Pittsburgh Pirates
    on Wednesday night.Nelson couldnt stop the Pirates from winning their sixth
    straight at Miller Park, and sixth of seven overall to improve to 76-75.
    Pittsburgh began the day 4 1/2 games behind San Francisco for the second NL wild
    card spot. The Pirates also have to hurdle the St. Louis Cardinals and Miami
    Marlins, too.McCutchen helped the Pirates jump out to an early lead for the
    second consecutive game. He crushed a 2-2 pitch that just slipped by the
    left-field foul pole for his 24th home run. Tuesday, he hit a two-run double in
    the first.I thought it was going foul, but it didnt, Nelson said. It was a good
    fast ball down and away. It ran up and in. I was impressed that he got to it. He
    did a good job of squaring up on a mistake right there.Rodriguezs two-run single
    finished the scoring in the first off Nelson (8-15) and extended his hitting
    streak to 10 games. Rodriguez victimized Nelson again when he hit his 18th home
    run of the season in the fourth.He just didnt make pitches, Counsell said. He
    lost his command a little bit. The big thing was the walk to Cervelli and
    falling behind to Rodriguez, thats what ended up hurting him. Thats what ends up
    costing you the game.Its been a puzzling season for Nelson.He was 5-3 in his
    first 11 starts, but the loss to Pittsburgh dropped his record to 3-12 in his
    last 20 starts. He put his team in a 3-0 hole in the first and then labored
    through the next four innings before being pulled for a pinch-hitter in the
    bottom of the fifth.Counsell was ejected by home plate umpire Jerry Lane with
    two out in the top of the fourth inning.Adam Frazier had just fouled off a pitch
    from Nelson that bounced over his foot, out of the box and carried to first
    baseman Christ Carter who stepped on the bag for the apparent third out. Frazier
    looked puzzled and stayed put at the plate, but when the Brewers started off the
    field, Lane signaled foul ball.Counsell came out to argue with Lane.Overall,
    what upset me was he just missed the caall, Counsell said.ddddddddddddI felt
    like he changed his call. More than anything, I felt like he changed his
    call.Second baseman Scooter Gennett noticed the hesitation in Lanes call.Usually
    when a guy fouls a ball off his foot, the guy says it right away, Gennett said.
    He (Lane) kind of waited for the whole play to develop and then called it
    foul.Counsell finished and walked back toward the dugout, but then turned back
    for some final thoughts. Lane and Counsell became animated in their discussion
    before Lane ejected Counsell. First base umpire Hunter Wendelstedt ushered
    Counsell to the dugout.Kuhl (5-3) pitched two-hit ball through the fourth before
    the Brewers manufactured a run on Jonathan Villars two-out single in the fifth.
    Kuhl struck out six and walked one in his second career start against the
    Brewers.The win was much better result than the last time he faced the
    Brewers.TRAINERS ROOMPirates: LF Starling Marte missed his 16th consecutive game
    with low back discomfort, but pinch hit in the eighth and took a called third
    strike. He went through another full workout and the club anticipates his return
    to the field in the near future.Brewers: LF Ryan Braun missed his second
    consecutive game to be with his wife, Larisa, and their new son, Greyson Joseph.
    Manager Craig Counsell said that it was possible Braun may be back Thursday for
    the last of the three-game series with the Pirates. . RHP Taylor Jungmann (0-4,
    8.34 ERA) makes his first start since April 28 against the Chicago Cubs when he
    faces Cincinnati on Saturday. He made the Opening Day roster, but then struggled
    mightily in his first five starts that he was demoted. Jungmann hasnt allowed a
    run in 10 appearances since being recalled from Double-A Biloxi on Sept. 6.UP
    NEXTPirates: RHP Ryan Vogelsong (3-5, 4.87 ERA) makes his 10th start since being
    reinstated from the disabled list (facial fractures) on Aug. 4. He is unbeaten
    in his last four starts against the Brewers, including a 5-3 decision this Aug.
    26 at Miller Park.Brewers: RHP Chase Anderson (8-11, 4.47) makes his fifth start
    against the Pirates this season. He is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA in the four previous
    outings. ' ' '