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Dont sweat the righty-righty

  • March 8, 2019
    导出博客文章BUFFALO, N.Y. -- Buffalo Sabres center Tyler Ennis is out indefinitely after
    having surgery to repair a groin injury.The team says Ennis will miss several
    weeks in announcing the news Thursday.Ennis was hurt in a 4-0 loss at Boston on
    Monday.Its the latest setback for Ennis, who missed the last half of last season
    because of concussion-related issues.And its another blow for the banged-up
    Sabres, who are already missing several regulars.Top-line center Jack Eichel is
    expected to miss another few weeks recovering from a sprained left ankle he
    suffered Oct. 12. Defenseman Zach Bogosian is out with a sprained knee.Ennis has
    scored 20 or more goals in three of eight seasons with Buffalo. He has a goal
    and assist in 12 games this season.
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    . Coach Tom Thibodeau says the former MVP will probably start
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    . The Cleveland Indians, Tampa Bay Rays, and Texas
    Rangers all won on Sunday meaning the Rangers will host the Rays in a play-in
    game on Monday. Tuesday features a full MLB slate with plenty of quality
    pitching options available. Check out the Daily Notes for a look at the arms --
    and bats -- to target in your lineups.PitchingEliteIts no surprise that Noah
    Syndergaard carries the top projected Game Score for the day, but thats because
    the projection system doesnt know that his elbow is barking with some bone spurs
    that have likely influenced his 5.23 ERA in the last four starts. I will say
    that Im much more comfortable with him in DFS over season-long right now because
    of the uncertainty with that elbow. We dont know how much the elbow is hampering
    him or when it flares up. If we assume it played a role in the 3 IP/5 ER and 4.7
    IP/3 ER duds over his last three starts, then we have to acknowledge the
    Thor-esque 7 IP/1 ER gem in the middle against the very same Cubs he has on
    Tuesday.Jake Arrieta had an ace-level 1.29 ERA and 0.84 WHIP through his first
    nine starts of the season, but hes been Baltimore-era Arrieta in his last nine
    starts with a 4.38 ERA and 1.40 WHIP thanks in large part to a surge in walks.
    Hes up at 4.0 BB/9 in these last nine. In fact, walks have been a lingering
    issue all year as Arrieta has just one walk-free outing. I investigated the walk
    rate over at Fangraphs a couple weeks ago and surmised that lefties were laying
    off more, but not turning it into damage... so he promptly went out and got
    hammered by lefties (and righties, to be honest) in a couple of ugly starts.Of
    course, in those ugly starts, it was hits not walks so Im still not sure weve
    seen the elevated walk rate really burn him. Remember our nine good/nine bad
    splits? He had a 2.57 ERA in the first six of the nine bad starts, so its really
    been three bad starts and were in the midst of them so they feel more important.
    Overall, Im just not that worried about Arrieta.You no longer have to run from
    strikeout pitchers facing the Royals, at least not strikeout righties. Danny
    Salazar definitely qualifies as a strikeout pitcher with a career-best 10.2 mark
    (minimum 100 IP, he did have 11.3 in his 52 IP debut back in 2013), including
    nine in both of his starts this year against these Royals. Unfortunately, his
    walk rate has soared to 4.0 BB/9 and cut into his efficiency, especially of late
    as hes finished six innings just once in his last four starts. The Royals have
    an MLB-worst 6 percent walk rate against right-handers, which further adds to
    this matchups appeal, though Salazar has been on both ends of the spectrum with
    them walking just one on May 6 but then five on June 3. Ill take my chances of
    getting something more like the May 6 outing.We havent talked a lot about Carlos
    Martinez this year in fantasy circles despite a better ERA and WHIP combo than
    his 2015 breakout. His 2.85 ERA is 15th-best among qualified starters, but it
    comes with just a 7.6 K/9, down from last years 9.2 mark. The narrative would
    suggest that hes fanning fewer in favor of more control and/or efficiency, but
    neither holds up under scrutiny.Martinezs walk rate is down marginally from 3.2
    to 3.0, which would net him all of three fewer walks if he matched his 2015
    innings total. Meanwhile, his pitches-per-plate appearance rate is static at
    3.7. Hes just generating fewer swings, especially outside of the zone, which has
    cost him 1.5 percentage points on his swinging strike rate. He did fan a
    season-high 11 his last time out (in just five innings, too) after fanning seven
    the start before. He has six starts of at least seven strikeouts, so the spikes
    are still there, its just that the floor is lower. Martinez had fewer than five
    strikeouts in eight of 31 starts last year; hes done so in seven of 17 already
    this year.Solid Aaron Sanchez is like Syndergaard in that hes a better DFS
    option right now, though for a vastly different reason. Sanchez is bumping up on
    a nebulous innings limit that the Jays have been unsurprisingly coy about so
    just counting him on a game-to-game level seems a lot safer than having him on
    your season-long team, let alone trading for him in such a league. I certainly
    dont envy the Jays for having to make the decision on Sanchez, especially as he
    seems to be hitting another gear with a 1.91 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his last five
    starts (33 IP). Sanchez has actually done his best work away from home (2.20 ERA
    in 69.7 IP) while the D-Backs have been a nightmare in their own ballpark
    (17-33).As we move away from win-loss records being used a measure of quality,
    Jose Quintana has kind of been the posterboy, tallying exactly nine wins in each
    of the last three years despite skills deserving of something better than his
    27-28 record during this period. After running out to a 5-1 record this year, he
    seemed like a sure bet to reach the double-digit win mark. But then he went 2-7
    in his next 11 with a 4.38 ERA. I already feel dirty for focusing so much on a
    win-loss record, but they matter a lot more in DFS where the points for a win
    can be a game-changer. While Quintana hasnt been as sharp since the hot start,
    hes still been more good than bad and taken some hard-luck losses/no-decisions.
    He has won his last two starts and gets a Mariners team that is just 3-7 in its
    last 10 and does its best work against righties.You may not have fully noticed
    Junior Guerra this year, but hes been really good for the Brewers. He jumped on
    the map in May with 36 strikeouts in 36.3 innings. He tested the resolve of
    those who bought in by fanning just nine total batters in his first three starts
    of June, but has once again shown his strikeout prowess with 27 in his last 28
    innings (not to mention a sparkling 1.61 ERA, too). This isnt just an
    out-of-nowhere fluke. Guerra can touch the mid-90s with regularity and his
    splitter has been one off baseballs best all year.dddddddddddd Dont get hung up
    on him being a 31-year-old rookie and focus more on the fact hes pitching really
    well with the stuff to back it up.Continuing my (possibly tired) theme of
    pitchers better in DFS than season-long leagues right now, we have Vincent
    Velasquez, who is in a very similar situation to Sanchez with the unfortunate
    twist of being on a bottom-feeding team that will be more inclined to limit his
    innings sooner than later. He also suffered a biceps strain earlier in the
    season which only pushes Philly closer to being overly cautious. But again, we
    just need him for six or seven innings on Tuesday night. The Marlins arent a
    walkover, but Velasquez is matchup-proof at his best.Spot-starters and streamers
    Scott Kazmir is never really a comfortable play in DFS as hes been known to
    suffer through some severe clunkers, but after a rocky start to the season (5.23
    ERA in 51.7 IP) he has a solid 3.72 ERA in his last 44 IP with 59 strikeouts.
    Hes only 4-0 in the nine starts because he doesnt go deep into games (just 5.3
    IP/start), but he makes up for it with strikeouts.Jameson Taillon hit the DL
    with shoulder fatigue, but didnt miss too many starts thanks to the All-Star
    break. The one-time super prospect has looked sharp early in his major league
    career. He has a couple 4 IP/4 ER clunkers, but he hasnt really been destroyed
    in any of his five starts. And while he hasnt been a huge strikeout asset, hes
    not a bad low-dollar gamble.Avoid Blake Snell hasnt posted eye-popping results
    in his six MLB starts, but his transition to the majors has been much smoother
    than most of the other big prospects who arrived this year. Dont forget, Michael
    Fulmer had a 6.52 ERA through his first four starts. I think being in the
    rotation full time will yield benefits to us in the DFS arena as Snell starts to
    learn more about pitching in the majors. He has already shown some flashes, like
    his debut against the Yankees (5 IP/1 ER/6 Ks) or his most recent outing against
    the Angels (6 IP/2 ER/7 Ks). But hes clearly still working out the rookie kinks,
    which is why he has a 1.58 WHIP. Plus, there are few established guys I would
    roll the dice on in Coors, let alone a blossoming rookie.Hitting Theres a game
    in Coors, so theres that.I think the aforementioned Blake Snell will struggle
    with Rockies strong lineup, including Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Mark
    Reynolds, Nick Hundley, DJ LeMahieu and of course everyones favorite
    lefty-smasher: Ryan Raburn (though he only has an .804 OPS against them this
    year). I imagine their lefty rating is higher because of Snells reverse platoon
    split, but Id stay focused on righties.On the other side, the Rays face Tyler
    Chatwood, who also has a reverse platoon split, though his is a bit more
    pronounced and dates back to the start of 2014 (though keep in mind he missed
    2015 with Tommy John surgery). Honestly though, its Coors so you can pick the
    Rays you want, including former Rockies outfielder Corey Dickerson.Atlanta
    Braves righties draw a 10-rating against home run machine Cody Reed (he of the
    impossible 3.6 HR/9 through five starts), but who are you really taking from
    that team? Freddie Freeman is a lefty, but does have a career-best .930 OPS
    against lefties this year, so maybe you take the platoon disadvantage and see if
    he can go off on Reed.What do you have more fun exploiting: a game in Coors or
    Tim Lincecum starts? Lincecum went 6 IP/1 ER in his first start, but has been
    thrashed for an 8.66 ERA in his last four. The Angels bullpen isnt much better,
    so even if Lincecum only lasts a few innings, your Rangers picks will still face
    poor pitching. Dont sweat the righty-righty matchup and jump on Ian Desmond and
    Adrian Beltre, but dont ignore lefties Shin-soo Choo and Nomar Mazara.The whole
    Angels-Rangers game is worth jumping on, but the Angels arent exactly rich in
    options. Of course you have Mike Trout, but you might also look at Kole Calhoun
    and even Albert Pujols against Kyle Lohse. Yeah, Lohse is back in the
    league!Vance Worley draws a spot start for Baltimore, further highlighting the
    teams desperate need for more pitching. The Yankees offense has been bottom 10
    against righties, but this looks like a spot ripe to roster a couple of New York
    bats, including Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Brett Gardner and Didi
    Gregorius.The other side of this game might actually be more appealing. Nathan
    Eovaldi appeared to be improving last year with the addition of a splitter, but
    hes been a nightmare this year (5.11 ERA, 1.38 WHIP). And the Orioles offense is
    straight fire, though it will also cost a lot more. Baltimores best bets against
    righties are Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Chris Davis and Hyun
    Soo Kim. Even Pedro Alvarez has gotten in on the action with an .879 OPS against
    righties. Of course, he will likely have to face Andrew Miller and/or Aroldis
    Chapman at some point or just be pulled from the game. Hes a nightmarish
    3-for-22 against southpaws this year (.332 OPS).Most likely to go yard: Evan
    Longoria. Longo has already matched his 2015 home run total of 21 in 71 fewer
    games. He also has a pair of two-HR games this year, including one on Sunday.
    Heres to a double-dong effort in Coors!Most likely to swipe a bag: Do guys even
    steal bases anymore? Just kidding. Ill take Jonathan Villar, the MLBs leader in
    swipes. Its chalky for sure, but its not like there are that many reliable
    stolen base options out there these days. Dont sleep on Ender Inciarte as long
    as Tucker Barnhart is behind the dish for Cincy (but then youll have to roster
    his .626 OPS, too). ' ' '