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who was overseen for his quarterback

  • January 10, 2019
    导出博客文章CHICAGO -- Joe Maddon showed up in a blue Chicago Cubs We Came To Reign sweater.
    On Friday, he might as well try chaps and spurs.Thats because Maddon will
    probably feel like he is in the Wild West when the Cubs open their NL Division
    Series against the San Francisco Giants, managing against Bruce Bochy.Hes a
    cowboy, Maddon said Thursday. Hell do anything. And when you manage against a
    cowboy, its always interesting.It sure figures to be that way with two
    successful managers with different approaches going at it. Maddon and Bochy tend
    to treat regular-season matchups as if they were playoff games. Now that they
    are actually meeting in the postseason?Oh, theyre going to have a field day,
    Cubs outfielder Chris Coghlan said. Theyre going to love it. They do every
    time.Theres Maddon, the laid-back professorial hipster with the white hair and
    horned rim glasses, who balances advanced metrics with more traditional analysis
    and keeps his players on their toes simply by being different and fun.He also
    has a team that comes in with a major league-leading 103 wins and the hopes of
    its long-suffering fans that the teams first World Series title since 1908 is on
    the way.Then theres the more old-school Bochy, who while not quite as immersed
    in the numbers has led the Giants to three World Series titles since 2010. And
    for what its worth, all three have come in even-numbered years.We look forward
    to managing against guys that we know do such a great job and will be so well
    prepared and it makes you stay on your toes and make sure that youre ready and
    youre prepared, Bochy said. So, especially going against such a good club and
    hes got a lot of weapons over there and its up to me to have these guys ready
    and of course have my moves ready.The Cubs took four of seven meetings from the
    Giants this season. And their final five games were all decided by one run.While
    the outcome of the series largely hinges on the arms of Jon Lester and Johnny
    Cueto and the bats of Kris Bryant and Buster Posey, the matchup between Maddon
    and Bochy is one to watch.I think the strategies and what the other guys are
    thinking, I just know from the years playing against the Giants and Bochy he
    just does a really good job of having two guys up all the time ready for that
    pinch-hitter, ready for the matchup, Cubs slugger Anthony Rizzo said. And
    playing with Joe, he does a good job.The two have a strong mutual admiration
    that took root when they first crossed paths managing in the minors decades ago.
    While Maddon relies more on advanced metrics, he and Bochy are both respected by
    their players for their communication skills and penchant for making the right
    move.Maddon, of course, is also known to have zoo animals at Wrigley Field. And
    onesie road trips. He showed up one day at spring training dressed in a tie-dye
    T-shirt and headband in a throwback 1970s van blasting Earth, Wind & Fire.It
    wasnt his last groovy thought.The other day I texted him. I changed my number,
    Coghlan said.Maddons response?Groovy, he said.But to Coghlan, its not just that
    Maddon is fun and cool. He also happens to be a great coach with a knack for
    finding a flaw, for example, in something as simple as his footwork.Coghlan
    appreciates that more than anything else, though it sure doesnt hurt knowing the
    man in the dugout will usually make all the right moves during the game.Coghlan
    sees a thought process in Maddon that is different than a lot of managers Ive
    played for and doesnt see how anyone could be better.Just to see him and how he
    thinks is really interesting, and I think theres a reason why hes had a lot of
    success, he said.The guy who will be in the other dugout has had his share of
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    Rinne played two periods in his first game since left hip surgery in early May.
    Gabriel Bourque scored 3:07 into the second period and Austin Watson tallied
    5:15 later for Nashville. The Tom Brady were seeing in 2016 isnt at all like the
    one we were expecting, but maybe we shouldnt be surprised.Popular opinion pushed
    Brady projections after he missed the first four games of the season into two
    camps. The pessimistic camp saw a 39-year-old quarterback who would be coming
    off an abbreviated training camp and a four-week absence from football and
    reasonably expected Brady to be rusty. The optimistic side expected Brady to be
    a vengeful, hyperaggressive gunner, something more akin to the screw you Brady
    of 2007 -- throwing deep into the fourth quarter and racking up points against
    desperately overmatched competition.In reality, the Brady of 2016 is neither of
    those guys. He certainly hasnt been rusty, and while hes been wildly effective,
    there hasnt been a real hint of venom to his performance so far. Against a
    series of average-or-worse defenses per DVOA, Brady has been extremely
    efficient. Theres a reason Rex Ryan said that he has [never] seen Brady this
    hot, after Sundays 41-25 thumping of the Bills in Buffalo. Brady doesnt appear
    angry, but he does appear close to untouchable.And so the questions mount. Is
    this as good as he has been, and is he going where no QB his age has gone
    before? And when all is said and done, is he an MVP??Is this the best Tom Brady
    weve ever seen?If its not the best four-game stretch Brady has ever put
    together, it isnt far off. What he has done over the first four games of his
    2016 season has been scary: Brady is 98-of-134 for a 73.1 completion percentage,
    throwing for 1,319 yards and averaging 9.84 yards per attempt. He leads all
    qualifying passers in both of those rate statistics. Perhaps most impressively
    (albeit unsurprisingly): Brady has thrown 12 touchdowns without an
    interception.In all, Brady has posted a passer rating of 133.9 through four
    games. 133.9! Thats unreal. We would say those are video game numbers, but if
    the game was that easy, you would raise the difficulty level because it almost
    wouldnt be fun if you were that good. To compare, you can split Bradys career up
    into 181 four-game stretches without crossing over seasons. Theres some overlap
    because Brady put together two incredible six-game runs, but of those 181
    four-game stretches, Brady posted a passer rating higher than 133.9 just seven
    timesuring the first four weeks of the 2007 season, when Bradys connection
    with Randy Moss and Wes Welker in a newly spread-happy Patriots attack took
    defenses by surprise.Three different times from Weeks 5 through 11 of the 2007
    season, as what was then regarded as the greatest offense in NFL history hit its
    peak around New Englands Week 10 bye. Brady peaked with a 138.9 rating during
    that stretch, culminating in a 56-10 win over these same Bills. The Pats
    averaged 41.1 points through that Bills game and a much more reasonable 29.7
    points per game afterward.Three more times during a stretch from Weeks 10
    through 15 of the 2010 season, when Brady followed up a 20-point loss in
    Cleveland to Eric Manginis Browns by going 6-0 and throwing for 1,735 yards with
    17 touchdowns against zero picks in a six-game span, peaking with a 138.6 passer
    rating.QBR only exists through the 2006 campaign, but given how Bradys numbers
    took a dramatic leap during the 2007 season, its safe to use it as a comparison
    here as well. It agrees with passer rating. According to ESPN Stats &
    Information, Brady posted 96.4 QBR during a four-game stretch from Weeks 7
    through 11 of the 2007 season, which is just absurd; it suggests that an average
    team with an average defense and average luck would win 96.4 percent of the time
    if it had a quarterback playing like Brady under center.Brady also had a stretch
    with a 92.9 QBR that season, and two consecutive 2010 four-game runs with a 92.1
    QBR, all of which are adjusted for quality of competition. Through four games
    this year, Brady has posted a 91.6 QBR, which is the fifth-best run of his
    professional career. Brady has averaged 11.6 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A)
    through these four games; he has had only three previous stretches in his career
    with a better AY/A -- and they were all in 2010.No matter what broad measure of
    quarterback play you use, the results are roughly the same: Were looking at one
    of the best quarter-seasons of Bradys career, and its almost certainly the best
    stretch since the 2010 season, when Rob Gronkowski was a rookie and only became
    the fourth option in the passing attack once the Patriots traded Moss away in
    midseason. Just eight Patriots from that team are on the 2016 roster. Its been
    awhile since Brady was this great.How is he different from the Brady of the
    recent past?The biggest difference is volume, which may very well be influencing
    Bradys efficiency. He may be more effective than he has been in years because
    Brady is throwing less frequently than he typically would. Brady has thrown 134
    passes during his first four games this year, an average of 33.5 passes per
    contest. Thats remarkably low for the future Hall of Famer: The only previous
    four-game stretches in which his attempt totals were that low include runs from
    2014, including the Chiefs game (in which Brady was removed in the fourth
    quarter for his own safety behind a porous offensive line) and the final four
    weeks of 2014 and 2015, when Brady took limited snaps in Week 17.2010 is really
    the last time the Patriots put this little stress on Brady. He has averaged 616
    pass attempts per 16 games over the past five years and never posted fewer than
    582 passes over that span. If Brady averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game over a
    full 16-game season, he would hit 536 tries. You might imagine that low total is
    due to the fact that the Patriots are blowing teams out and just running the
    ball more frequently, but they were beating other teams up and still throwing
    the ball a ton in years past.The answer is more complex. First, they are
    definitely running the ball more frequently in passing situations. From 2013 to
    2015, on first-and-10, Bradys Patriots threw the ball 53.1 percent of the time,
    the eighth-highest rate in the league. This year, since Bradys return to the
    lineup, theyre throwing the ball on only 45.5 percent of first-and-10 plays,
    which ranks 24th.The Patriots are also operating at a slower tempo than they did
    under Belichick and Josh McDaniels in years past. From 2013 to 2015, again with
    Brady at the helm, they used 26.6 seconds of possession per play, which was the
    third-highest rate in the league behind the Eagles and Jaguars. This year, since
    Bradys return, theyve run a play once every 28.3 seconds of possession, which is
    right around the league average (28.4). Theyre slower and more methodical, but
    when Brady throws, hes staggeringly effective.By emphasizing the run, the
    Patriots also may have opened up an avenue which seemed lost and should terrify
    opposing teams: Brady suddenly has been able to throw downfield again this year.
    Hes throwing downfield about as frequently as he has in years past, but this
    year those throws are far more effective. From 2013 to 2015, on throws which
    traveled 16 or more yards in the air (the NFLs definition of a deep pass),
    Bradys 80.0 passer rating was only goood for 22nd in the league, while his
    76.dddddddddddd5 QBR was a similarly middling 23rd. Brady completed just 38.3
    percent of his deep throws for 17 touchdowns against 13 picks.In 2016, Brady has
    been nearly flawless on those same passes. He has thrown only 21 of them so far,
    but his QBR on those deep throws is a nice, neat 100 (a perfect QBR score).
    Brady is 13-of-21 on those passes for 521 yards with four touchdowns and zero
    picks. He has posted a 145.3 passer rating on those attempts. Nobody in the
    league has been better on deep passes this season than Brady, to which Chris
    Hogan can attest. Most 39-year-olds dont pick up fading arm strength and return
    the deep pass to their repertoire. And hey, speaking of age ...Has anybody
    Bradys age ever played this well?The short answer is no. The vast majority of
    Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks were done by their age-39 season. Peyton
    Manning just finished his age-39 campaign and was suddenly a sub-replacement
    quarterback, albeit one who was dragged by his defense to a Super Bowl title.
    Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Steve Young and Kurt Warner retired at 38. Johnny
    Unitas and Sonny Jurgensen were part-timers.There are only three quarterbacks in
    league history who have started 10 games or more during their age-39 season, as
    Brady likely will if he stays healthy. One was Doug Flutie, who split time with
    Drew Brees and threw more interceptions than touchdowns for the 2001 Chargers.
    The second was Brett Favre, who was playing his lone year (2008) in New York
    with the Jets and threw as many interceptions (22) as touchdowns in a
    frustrating, injury-affected season.The best age-39 passer was Warren Moon, who
    racked up numbers for the Vikings. Moon led the league in completions and threw
    33 touchdowns against 14 picks while posting a 115 AY/A+ (in which league
    average is 100). Brady, through four weeks, has?posted a 159 AY/A+. Moon played
    well and made the Pro Bowl, but nobody was suggesting he was the best
    quarterback in football. Bradys quite clearly in that discussion.Is he the best
    quarterback in football right now?Not only is Brady the best quarterback in the
    league, but I dont think its particularly close. Ill get to the idea of which
    quarterback has accumulated the most value in a bit, but in terms of rate
    statistics, Bradys significantly ahead of all other qualifying passers in every
    major category:Ive seen arguments suggesting that Bradys performance should be
    taken with a grain of salt by virtue of the players around him and the success
    of Jimmy Garoppolo earlier this season, and thats just nuts. Garoppolo did have
    a similarly impressive QBR, but Bradys rate statistics are otherwise well ahead
    of Garoppolos in the backups two starts earlier this year.In addition, it
    shouldnt seem like a coincidence that the offense has clicked even more with
    Brady at the helm. Hes being pressured quite frequently -- 32.2 percent of the
    time, with just four passers bothered more often -- but Bradys taking an average
    of only 2.35 seconds to get the ball out for a safe throw, which is the
    sixth-quickest rate in football. Some fans suggest that Brady needs Gronkowski
    ambulatory to succeed, but it also should be pointed out how Gronk immediately
    got going once Brady returned to the lineup.After the game, despite torching the
    Bills for 109 yards and a touchdown, Gronk didnt receive any praise from the
    Bills defense:?One player said that Gronk needed Brady to unlock the massive
    tight ends size for mismatches while another suggested that Martellus Bennett
    was the better tight end of the two. Sour grapes, perhaps, but Brady and
    Gronkowski do certainly make one another better without pushing either into some
    sort of fraud category.Should he be in the running/a favorite for league
    MVP?Lets finish with this one, because I think its fascinating. Ill get into the
    other candidates in a week or two, but when I ran through MVP choices at the
    beginning of October for my quarter-season awards, my pick was Matt Ryan. Ryans
    now second to Brady in many rate categories and, by virtue of having played
    eight games, leads the league in passing yards (2,636) and passing touchdowns
    (19). Ryans the quarterback for an undeniably successful team with an 80.3
    percent chance of making the playoffs, per ESPNs Football Power Index.Chase
    Stuart of Football Perspective wrote about the idea of winning an award
    despite?failing to play a full slate because of an injury or suspension. The
    only player to win the APs Most Valuable Player award while missing a notable
    amount of time was Joe Montana in 1989, who played 13 games and still managed to
    get the nod. (It helped that Steve Young happened to be the backup in San
    Francisco at the time.)Montana was head-and-shoulders above the pack that year:
    He completed 70.2 percent of his passes when nobody else was above 63 percent,
    averaged 9.1 yards per throw when nobody else was above 8.3, and finished 20
    points ahead of everyone else in passer rating. No other competitive player
    emerged, as the top running backs were in a narrow battle, while the top
    receiver was Jerry Rice, who was overseen for his quarterback. Chris Doleman had
    21 sacks but didnt receive serious MVP consideration, apparently. And,
    crucially, the 49ers went 11-2 in Montanas starts and finished 14-2 in a league
    in which only one other team won as many as 12 games. They were clearly the best
    team in football.Could Brady and the Patriots fit that bill? Absolutely.Theres
    no obvious counter candidate at a different position. Running backs are less
    important than ever before, and Ezekiel Elliott is more likely to be an
    Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Theres no otherworldly defender like
    J.J. Watt suiting up this season, while there are so many incredible wide
    receivers that it would be almost impossible to vote for, say, Julio Jones over
    Antonio Brown and A.J. Green.The dominant leads in various rate statistics are
    already in play, as I mentioned earlier, if Brady can keep them up over the
    course of the season. He might also need the Patriots to stand out as the best
    team in football, which is hardly likely to be a problem. The Pats have the the
    leagues best record at 7-1, and with the AFC East looking limited at best, New
    England has a far easier path to postseason comforts. The Football Power Index
    gives the Patriots a staggering 78.8 percent chance of coming away with the top
    seed in the AFC.The FPI also gives the Patriots a 9.9% chance of running the
    table, which would likely create an irresistible case for Brady. The Patriots
    would finish the year at 15-1, and Brady would have gone 12-0 as the teams
    starter. If Brady also led the league in every meaningful quarterback rate
    statistic, theres no way the electorate would vote for somebody else. Even if
    voters are typically exhausted of giving the award to prior winners and dont
    want to read or write another article about Deflategate, Brady would be too
    valuable of a passer to ignore.He was gone, but after one month, Bradys service
    has been more than restored. It has been upgraded.
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