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  • 12 Mar
    导出博客文章Persevering through massive injury losses, the Ottawa Senators made the playoffs
    and defeated the Montreal Canadiens in Round One before losing out to the
    Pittsburgh Penguins. Off-Season Game Plan looks at a suddenly promising Senators
    club, that should be healthy next season, has plenty of young players who should
    improve and few onerous salary commitments, leaving them with plenty of cap
    room. Head coach Paul MacLean won the Jack Adams Award as the leagues best
    coach, steering the Senators through choppy waters when they lost Erik Karlsson,
    Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek, Craig Anderson and Jared Cowen for long stretches
    of the season. Surely, credit is due MacLean for the Senators managing to reach
    the playoffs despite those injuries, but credit can also go to sensational
    goaltending, from Anderson and Robin Lehner (and Ben Bishop before he was traded
    to Tampa Bay), and to young players who responded to being given more
    responsibility. While it would be unreasonable for the Senators to expect their
    goaltender to be as great as they were in 2013, there are reasons for optimism,
    including the teams strong possession stats and a league-worst shooting
    percentage. How does it benefit the Senators to have scored on just 7.0% of
    their shots? Well, its unlikely that they will have the worst shooting
    percentage again next season, particularly in a season that should include a
    healthy Spezza and Karlsson. "We need to score more goals," GM Bryan Murray said
    at his season-ending press conference. "We have to find a way to create a little
    more offence and that may mean trying to find a player out there that will do
    that. "But part of it also will be counting on a couple of the younger players
    that showed they can play in the league to step up and do a little more with the
    puck than they were capable of or able to do this year." Hes right, the
    Senators do need to find more scoring. The good news is that they are in
    position to address that need so that they are poised to be a playoff contender
    for years to come. The TSN.ca Rating is an efficiency rating based on per-game
    statistics including goals and assists -- weighted for strength (ie. power play,
    even, shorthanded) -- plus-minus, hits, blocked shots, giveaways, takeaways,
    penalty differential and faceoffs. (Stats are listed in this format: G-A-PTS,
    +/-, PIM, GP). Generally, a replacement-level player is around a 60, a top six
    forward and top four defenceman will be 70-plus, stars will be over 80 and MVP
    candidates could go over 90. Sidney Crosby finished at the top of the 2013
    regular season ratings with a 93.65. Salary cap information all comes from the
    indispensable www.capgeek.com. GM/COACHBryan Murray/Paul MacLean Returning
    Forwards Player Rating GP G A PTS +/- Cap Hit Jason Spezza 76.57 5 2 3 5 +3
    $7.0M Kyle Turris 73.08 48 12 17 29 +6 $3.5M Milan Michalek 70.34 23 4 10 14 +8
    $4.333M Jean-Gabriel Pageau 69.98 9 2 2 4 +3 $613K Cory Conacher 66.61 47 11 18
    29 +3 $925K Mika Zibanejad 65.99 42 7 13 20 +9 $1.744M Jakob Silfverberg 65.22
    48 10 9 19 +9 $900K Colin Greening 64.57 47 8 11 19 +5 $817K Chris Neil 61.10 48
    4 8 12 0 $1.9M Zack Smith 59.86 48 4 11 15 -9 $1.888M Matt Kassian 57.10 15 1 0
    1 0 $575K Jim OBrien 55.84 29 5 1 6 -2 $638K Free Agent Forwards Player Rating
    GP G A PTS +/- Class 12-13 Cap Hit Daniel Alfredsson 71.66 47 10 16 26 +1 UFA
    $4.875M Guillaume Latendresse 65.80 27 6 4 10 -2 UFA $2.0M Erik Condra 62.19 48
    4 8 12 +3 RFA $625K Peter Regin 53.89 27 0 3 3 -4 UFA $800K Senators Forwards
    Usage Chart from somekindofninja.com Since 2005-2006, Jason Spezza has scored
    545 points in 500 games, his 1.09 points per game ranking fifth, behind
    Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin and Joe Thornton. Of course, a back
    injury and subsequent knee injury limited him to five regular-season games and
    three playoff games, so it was virtually a write-off season. When healthy, hes
    one of the games best playmakers, the kind of creator that the Senators sorely
    missed while he was out of the lineup. Kyle Turris opened the season with 10
    points in his first 11 games, then was hot and cold the rest of the season
    (three points in 14 games, nine points in eight games, two points in nine games,
    five points in six games and then nine points in 10 playoff games). He scored at
    a career-best rate (0.60 ppg) and played a career-high 19:38 per game but, as
    the 23-year-old matures, avoiding some of the droughts would be favourable. As
    it is, hes a nice fit as the Senators number two pivot. Injuries have been too
    common in recent seasons for 28-year-old winger Milan Michalek, and he missed 25
    games last season but, since 2006-2007, he is one of 15 wingers with 150 goals
    and a cumulative plus-minus of at least plus-30. When healthy, hes still a
    productive winger, even if hes coming off a season in which he had a career-low
    goal-scoring rate, with four goals in 23 games (0.17 gpg). A fourth-round pick
    in 2011, small and energetic centre Jean-Gabriel Pageau spent most of his first
    pro season in the AHL, scoring 29 points with a plus-8 rating in 69 games, then
    adding 10 points in 19 (regular season plus playoff) games for Ottawa. With that
    little experience, it might be fair to leave Pageau in the prospect pool, but it
    seems like a good bet that hell be part of next years team. Acquired from Tampa
    Bay as part of the Ben Bishop trade, Cory Conacher got off to wonderful start
    for the Lightning, scoring 12 points in the first seven games as he skated on
    Steven Stamkos wing, but his production tailed off (17 points in the remaining
    40 games), so its hard to know if the smallish winger, who was a healthy scratch
    at times in the postseason, will score consistently enough to maintain a regular
    spot in the lineup. The sixth overall pick in 2011, Mika Zibanejad showed real
    promise as a rookie. His scoring was inconsistent, but he was an effective
    two-way forward who earned more ice time as the season progressed. Hes already a
    contributor, but if Zibanejads offence develops, hell be a big part of the
    Senators success. After tearing up (54 points in 49 games in 2011-2012) the
    Swedish Elite League and a solid start (29 points in 34 games) to the year in
    the AHL Jakob Silfverberg didnt quite score as much as might have been expected
    as a rookie, but he generated chances. Since 2000, there have been 10 first year
    players to have at least 2.75 shots on goal per game and Silfverberg is one of
    them. Its not unreasonable to think that he could score on a higher percentage
    of his shots on goal, so there is still offensive potential to be explored. A
    big winger who can chip in a little offensively, Colin Greening is a very
    reasonably-priced option to take a regular turn in Ottawas top nine. 34-year-old
    enforcer Chris Neil played a career-high 13:52 while dressing for every game in
    2013, and had respectable puck possession stats, justifying that usage. He has
    55 fights over the last five seasons and has scored at least 10 goals and 20
    points five times in his career. A gritty checking centre who was pressed into a
    more offensive role at times last season, Zack Smith isnt cut out for that work,
    but had bad luck around the net even for a mucker. Picked up on waivers from
    Minnesota, Matt Kassian has three goals and 114 penalty minutes in 43 career
    games. Hes big enough to be classed with the super heavyweights of the league,
    but hasnt shown any profiency otherwise to indicate hell be more than muscle.
    Jim OBrien has a dozen points in 63 career games and lost his spot in the lineup
    in the final month of the regular season. He may be in a battle for a roster
    spot next season, but has an economical one-way deal that could work in his
    favour. A sound two-way winger with good possession numbers, Erik Condra is a
    low-percentage finisher (5.6% over the last two seasons), but is an effective
    checker, who can add some offence from the bottom half of the depth chart. It
    might have been expected that 2013 would be the final year of Daniel Alfredssons
    career, but after a strong regular season, he put up 10 points in 10 playoff
    games, enough to think that the 40-year-old may not be ready to walk away just
    yet. At this point of his career, if Alfredsson wants to return, the Sens would
    surely be able to find a spot for him, probably in their top six. With lots of
    room under the salary cap, the Senators will be in position to add a top six
    forward. If they dont get one via trade, they can hit the free agent market,
    looking for Pascal Dupuis, Nathan Horton, Ryane Clowe or even older productive
    free agents like Patrik Elias and Jarome Iginla. The Sens have the room to make
    that kind of deal if thats how they want to address their need for more scoring.
    Returning Defence Player Rating GP G A PTS +/- Cap Hit Erik Karlsson 88.52 17
    6 8 14 +8 $6.5M Marc Methot 69.03 47 2 9 11 +2 $3.0M Chris Phillips 68.45 48 5 9
    14 -5 $3.083M Jared Cowen 66.49 7 1 0 1 +1 $1.265M Eric Gryba 63.55 33 2 4 6 -3
    $563K Free Agent Defence Player Rating GP G A PTS +/- Class 12-13 Cap Hit
    Patrick Wiercioch 71.03 42 5 14 19 +9 RFA $875K Andre Benoit 71.00 33 3 7 10 -3
    UFA $650K Mike Lundin 59.05 11 0 1 1 -2 UFA $1.15M Senators Defence Usage Chart
    from somekindofninja.com The leagues most electrifying defenceman, Erik Karlsson
    made a miraculously quick return from a torn Achilles to play late in the year
    and in the playoffs. He wasnt quite in peak form, but he is a major
    difference-maker when hes healthy. Karlsson only played 17 games last season,
    but his 4.65 shots on goal per game puts him in rare company. Acquired from
    Columbus, Marc Methot was a terrific fit in Ottawa, playing a career-high 22:14
    per game with strong possession stats. Hes the stay-at-home complement to a
    free-wheeling Karlsson. Now 35, Chris Phillips isnt the same shutdown presence
    that he was in his best years but, after his ice time was reduced in 2011-2012,
    he was back over 21 minutes per game in 2013. A hip injury kept Jared Cowen out
    of the lineup for all but seven games at the end of the year before playing in
    all 10 playoff games. Having him healthy gives the Senators some serious size on
    the blueline and, since Cowen is a 22-year-old with 90 career NHL games, we dont
    yet know how good he can be as a shutdown defender. While Eric Gryba is a big
    and physical player who gained a measure of notoriety for his knockout hit on
    Montreals Lars Eller in the first round of the playoffs, Gryba isnt a thug. He
    was plus-28 in 38 AHL games last season before his promotion to Ottawa and he
    played more than 20 minutes per game in the 33 games that he dressed for the
    Senators. His possession numbers wers shaky, so his role could be reduced with
    everyone healthy, but Gryba has made his case for a full-time NHL job.
    Patrick Wiercioch had his minutes managed, but he was able to contribute
    offensively, scoring 10 of his 19 points on the power play. With Sergei Gonchar
    moving on to Dallas, there could be an opportunity for Wiercioch to step into a
    bigger role next season. Returning Goaltenders Player Rating GP W L OTL GAA SV%
    Cap Hit Craig Anderson 90.06 24 12 9 2 1.69 .941 $3.188M Robin Lehner 85.29 12 5
    3 4 2.29 .936 $870K Craig Anderson has had some pretty good runs in his career
    (.939 SV% in his first 18 games with the Senators in 2010-2011, .935 SV% in 17
    games as a backup in Florida in 2007-2008), but they didnt compare to his 2013
    season, in which he had a .941 save percentage in 24 games during a season in
    which he missed six weeks with a sprained ankle. Its impossible to expect
    Anderson to duplicate those numbers over a full season, but hes shown that he
    can be an above-average starting goaltender. In 17 games over the last two
    seasons, Robin Lehner has a .936 save percentage (and he had a .938 save
    percentage in 38 AHL games last season), so the 21-year-old is ready for NHL
    duty. The only question is: how long before he is Ottawas number one option? Top
    Prospects Player Pos. Team/League Stats Cody Ceci D Owen Sound (OHL) 19-45-68,
    -8, 69 GP Stefan Noesen RW Plymouth (OHL) 25-28-53, +7, 51 GP Mark Stone RW
    Binghamton (AHL) 15-23-38, +21, 54 GP Shane Prince LW Binghamton (AHL) 18-17-35,
    +12, 65 GP Matt Puempel LW Kitchener (OHL) 35-12-47, +4, 51 GP Mark Borowiecki D
    Binghamton (AHL) 4-10-14, +21, 53 GP Cole Schneider LW Binghamton (AHL)
    17-18-35, +19, 60 GP Mike Hoffman LW Binghamton (AHL) 13-15-28, +9, 41 GP
    Derek Grant C Binghamton (AHL) 19-9-28, +11, 63 GP Stephane Da Costa C
    Binghamton (AHL) 13-25-38, +14, 57 GP The 15th overall pick last summer,
    Cody Ceci is a big blueliner who is a strong skater with solid offensive
    instincts who projects to be at least a top-four, potentially top pair,
    defenceman. A solid, but not spectacular winger with good size, Stefan Noesen
    was a first-round pick in 2011 and, if his scoring ability carries to the next
    level, hell be a solid addition a couple years from now. Though skating may be a
    concern with Mark Stone, he has soft hands for a big man and could be an ideal
    complement to a playmaking centre that handles the puck a lot. A very skilled
    winger, Shane Prince scored 178 points in his last two years of junior before
    having a productive first year as a pro. Princes challenge is getting strong
    enough to handle a potential jump to the next level. Another first-round pick
    from 2011, Matt Puempel has three 30-goal seasons in his junior career, but
    injuries have cut into his playing time over the last couple seasons, as hes
    played a total of 81 games. That being the case, he could definitely use some
    time in the AHL, just to show he can stay healthy and get acclimated to the
    grind of pro hockey. An aggressive physical defender, Mark Borowiecki may be
    ready for NHL duty, even in a depth role, after racking up 290 penalty minutes
    in 135 AHL games over two-plus seasons. Cole Schneider scored better than a
    point per game in two years at the University of Connecticut before solid
    production in his first pro campaign. A talented player with good speed,
    Mike Hoffmans chance with the Senators was cut short by a broken collarbone. As
    younger players rise up through the organization, it may be tougher for Hoffman
    to get a shot, but he could still be a candidate for a call-up. Derek Grant
    moves well for a big guy and got called up to Ottawa for a handful of games last
    season. Still needs to be more productive if hes going to have a legitimate shot
    at being an NHL player. Small playmaker Stephane Da Costa has seven points in 35
    games with the Senators, but has been more productive in the AHL, scoring 74
    points in 103 games. DRAFT17th - Valentin Zykov, Frederik Gauthier, Andre
    Burakovsky. FREE AGENCYAccording to www.capgeek.com, the Senators have
    approximately $43.5M committed to the 2013-2014 salary cap for 19 players. Check
    out my possible Senators lineup for next season on Cap Geek here. Needs: One top
    six forward, one top four defenceman.What I said the Senators needed last year:
    One top six forward, three defencemen.They added: Mika Zibanejad,
    Jakob Silfverberg, Guillaume Latendresse, Patrick Wiercioch, Marc Methot,
    Andre Benoit, Mike Lundin. TRADE MARKETCory Conacher, Jim OBrien. Scott Cullen
    can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at
    http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook.
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    the No. 1 job at the Sochi Games. The Anahim Lake, B.C., native was stellar in
    making 39 saves in his home province and Lars Eller got credit for a bizarre
    short-handed winner as the Canadiens defeated the Canucks 4-1.Willie Mullins
    felt Shaneshill and Nichols Canyon were feeling the effects of a long campaign
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