My Profile » Discussions

Wade Davis Jersey

  • May 28, 2019

    id=content_id>Yeah ,
    Verlander. And I’ll prove it."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Houston Astros
    NewsGame ThreadsHouston Astros Minor LeaguesAstros Game DayPodcastsReviewing
    Astros Trades, 2014-2018, Part VIII. The Greatest Trade of All
    Time.New,10commentsYeah, Verlander. And I’ll prove
    it.CDTShareTweetShareShareReviewing Astros Trades, 2014-2018, Part VIII. The
    Greatest Trade of All Time.Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY SportsIntroductionThis is
    part eight of a series analyzing Astros trades from 2014-2018. For a review of
    the methodology and caveats go to Part I here.This is a review of how the trades
    turned out, understanding that at the time the trades were made the teams
    involved used the best information available to maximize the chances of an
    advantageous transaction. But all trades are based on probabilities, and like
    any form of gambling, the actual outcomes may not be those desired. So this is
    not intended as a criticism of the trades at the time they happened, but just a
    review of how lady luck eventually blessed each trade in the end.The TradeAugust
    31, 2017, 11:59:59 PMBreakdown:In the last second of the last minute of the last
    hour of the waiver trading deadline, OF Daz Cameron, P Franklin Perez and C Jake
    Rogers were sent to the Tigers for P Justin Verlander and PTBNL Juan Ramirez.
    The Tigers agreed to pay $8 million/year of the remaining two years of
    Verlander’s $28 million/year salary.At the time of the trade only Franklin Perez
    was considered a Top 100 prospect, although all three were highly prized by the
    Astros organization.What the Tigers got:With his overall athleticism Daz Cameron
    in high school was once considered a possible first pick overall. He was drafted
    by the Astros in the first round of the 2015 supplemental draft which came to
    the Astros as part of the trade that brought Jake Marisnick and Collin Moran
    from Miami for Jarred Cosart and Enrique Hernandez. At age 21 Cameron tasted AAA
    last year, and had an .837 OPS in AA.His ETA according to Fangraphs is 2020, and
    is the 107th prospect in MLB. His future value rating is 50. the perspective of
    the Astros. Here’s why.Any trade that wins a championship is a great trade. It
    doesn’t matter if the Astros traded young Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb and Ted Williams,
    and thrown in Cy Young as the player to be named later, it is 100% certain that
    the Astros would not have won the World Series without Justin Verlander. That’s
    what you play for, and if you’re a team like the Astros the chance for that ring
    comes very rarely. And yet, even when a team takes the chance and pulls the
    trigger on a trade like this, it seldom works. This time it did. Without
    Verlander they would have almost certainly lost to the Yankees in the ALCS in
    five games. Wins now are worth more than wins later. Especially if they are wins
    that advance a championship drive. The players the Astros surrendered may
    produce 13 wins for the Tigers
    someday ,
    probably more, but maybe less. But when a team accepts prospects for a proven
    player they take risk, and with risk should come greater eventual reward.
    Considering the unexpected resurgence in Verlander’s performance on the Astros,
    the Tigers gave up more than they expected.They probably at least want their $8
    million a year back.Three players worth2 wins each does not equal one player
    worth six wins. It is relatively easy to find and or replace a 2 WAR player.
    There were 45 pitchers with WAR between 1.8 and 2.8 last year. There were six
    with WAR greater than 6. Three 2018 Gio Gonzalezes does not equal one Justin
    Verlander. Give me Verlander and find two other just guys.Why This is the
    Greatest Trade of All TimeOne could find dozens of trades that yielded more wins
    than this one will. In the end, by that criterion, the Astros may actually end
    up the net loser.But this trade was not about winning regular season games. They
    had the division easily wrapped up. It was about winning playoff games, and
    winning a championship, the first in the team’s history. If your team loses the
    last game of the season, the other ones don’t really matter. This was the
    greatest trade in history because never before did one trade alone make such a
    quick, total and decisive difference between a team not winning a championship
    and winning it. For no other trade could it be said more definitively that
    without the player added the team would not have won the championship, and with
    him it did. In a seven game ALCS, in which the losing team actually scored more
    runs, the Series MVP had a Win Probability Added of an astronomical .90. No
    conceivable replacement for Verlander could have come close to matching his
    performance, and without it the team never sniffs the World Series.A few trades
    are close contenders. 1.The 2000 trade of Curt Shilling to the Diamondbacks, but
    that took a year to yield the trophy2. The 2016 trade of Aroldis Chapman to the
    Cubs, but when Aroldis was called on to close out game seven he failed at the
    most decisive moment in the very thing he was acquired to do. The Cubs won that
    game despite their rented closer. The Cubs would have won the NLDS, the NLCS and
    the World Series without Chapman, the only decisive contribution he made being
    the Game 5 save in the World Series. His .23 WPA in the Series does not compare
    in importance to what Verlander did to get the Astros into the Series.Anyway,
    Verlander ate up over 34 playoff innings in 2017. Could you imagine what the
    score of those games would have been if the Astros’ playoff bullpen had to
    replace those?3.The 1998 trade of Pedro Martinez to the Red Sox was a steal, but
    it took six years for Martinez to put the Sox over the top.4. I don’t count the
    Yankees purchase of Babe Ruth as a trade, but I was surprised to learn that it
    took three years for Ruth to yield a World Series victory for the Yankees, that
    he only won four total with the Bombers, and actually won three titles with the
    Red Sox.This one trade is the closest challenger for Greatest Trade of All
    Time.Frank RobinsonFrank Robinson, after a slightly down
    year Wade
    Davis Jersey
    , was traded by the Cincinnati Reds for pitcher Milt Pappas.
    Robinson had his greatest season, winning the Triple Crown, MVP, and hitting
    1.047 OPS with 49 home runs. He produced 7.7 bWAR. We’ll round that up to
    eight.The Orioles were 97-63 that year, compared to a slightly over-achieving
    94-68 the previous year. They finished third without Robinson, and finished
    first in the AL in 1966 with him, with the help of Brooks Robinson, Boog Powell,
    Dave McNally, and rookie JimPalmer. They beat out an illustrious Minnesota Twins
    team that included Tony Oliva, Harmon Killebrew, Jim Kaat, Jim Perry, and Mudcat
    Grant. There were no play-offs then.The Orioles finished nine games ahead of the
    Twins, and given that Robinson created eight wins by this very approximate
    measure called WAR, it’s too close to call whether or not the Orioles would have
    won the AL pennant without Robinson. Nor can you quantify the effect a player of
    Robinson’s energy, enthusiasm and skill would have on the performances of the
    other players on the team, but by all accounts it was immense. Yet clearly
    Justin Verlander had that effect on his new team as well.I should mention that
    if the Orioles had kept Pappas he would have added 2.7 bWAR.The Orioles beat the
    LA Dodgers 4-0 in the World Series, taking down Hall of Famers Don Drysdale and
    Sandy Koufax.Robinson was MVP with an OPS of 1.232 and two home runs, one of
    which won game four, 1-0. His WPA was .27. (For comparison George Springer’s WPA
    in the 2017 World Series was 1.04)The Orioles outscored the punchless Dodgers
    13-2, so it seems that even if it had taken more games, the Orioles still would
    have beaten the Dodgers without Frank Robinson. But again, how does the absence
    of the team
    leader ,
    the man you know brought you there, effect everyone else’s performance?Here’s a
    few scenes from this World SeriesIt’s a really hard call to say whether or not
    the 66 Orioles would have won the World Series without Frank Robinson.My gut
    says no, but the numbers are a little more fuzzy.Without Verlander the 2017
    Astros do not win the ALCS or the WS,that is FOR SURE.So, by my definition that
    the greatest trade is the one that you can’t win the World Series without, I say
    the Verlander trade still wins the title Greatest Trade of All Time.Note: If
    anyone knows a more decisive trade, explain in the comments. And yes, I know
    Frank Robinson was also instrumental in the Orioles 1971 World Series as well,
    with the help of four 20 game winners. Maybe Verlander will bring the Stros a
    second World Series too! When one beefy boy goes, another takes its
    place"WhiteFanposts Sections News & RumorsAnalysisPodcastsProspects &
    DraftGame CoverageFull ArchiveMasthead Social Marlins Players on TwitterFish
    Stripes on InstagramMarlins Media Members Fish Stripes Best of 2018 Marlins
    StoriesScheduleRosterStatsCommunity Guidelines StubHub 鉁昅iami Marlins
    Analysis2018 Season Review: Corner InfieldersWhen one beefy boy goes, another
    takes its placea perpetual Quad-A stowaway to a real contender for the job out
    of spring training next year. Why can’t Cooper or O’Brien just become a lefty
    for next year? What, like it’s hard?Then we have to talk about Derek Dietrich.
    Dietrich played the majority of his games in the outfield this year, so we’ll
    talk about him then. But apparently, the Marlins just signed some international
    prospect named Victor Victor Mesa. And then there’s also some other guy named
    Monte Harrison who is tearing up the Arizona Fall League. Roster Resource has
    both of these guys pegged as starting in Double-A; even so, the Marlins still
    have to find playing time for Austin Dean, Magneuris Sierra, and Braxton
    Garrett. Dietrich will have to relinquish his spot for a true outfielder sooner
    or later.If this is the case, Dietrich will have to move back to first. It
    shouldn’t be a problem for Dietrich, he’s the lefty the platoon actually needs.
    But still, we’re looking at three-to-four first basemen for next year, and maybe
    three for the year after as well. The conclusion is that everyone isn’t going to
    make it next year; someone is going to start inNew Orleans. Thus, the play-in
    during Spring Training will be important next year. There’s just not enough room
    on the roster for two right-handed first basemen.